My Theory on George R.R. Martin’s Writing “Plan” for A Song of Ice and Fire

What do you believe is going on with George R.R. Martin’s writing process?

Like many other fans and readers of A Song of Ice and Fire series, we have been waiting for a very long time for Winds of Winter. A Dance with Dragons was published in 2011, a few weeks after the first season of Game of Thrones ended. Now, the eighth and final season is being filmed, and there is still no word on the progress of Winds of Winter. The last rumor that many fans believed was that several preview chapters were pulled from the Internet for editing. Now, with the television adaptation diverging beyond the books, the only thing many of us are hoping for is that the books will continue its own narrative, and not reiterate what was changed for television too much.

Now, while I’m sure Reddit and Tower of the Hand have several theories and ideas about when Winds of Winter is going to be announced/published, and whether or not there will be three more books instead of two, this is my theory based on what other authors have said and done in similar scenarios, and G.R.R.M.’s writing style. However, I’m not familiar with all of those theories. I hear some of them when I participate in live chats on YouTube. And, for the record, I have made a similar theory/prediction in the past. I was one of a few who brought up and defended the theory surrounding the potential release date for the novel, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, on 07/07/2007. As some of us may or may not remember, J.K. Rowling herself had to reject that theory.

While it has been over seven years since the fifth book in the A Song of Ice and Fire series was published, fans continue to enjoy the TV show, novellas, graphic novel adaptations, and fan chats surrounding the series. However, we remain curious as to when Winds of Winter will be released. I don’t believe there will be an additional book in the series. I believe we will get two very long novels to end it. I don’t believe George R.R. Martin will “pull a Robert Jordan (R.I.P.).” There is a children’s fantasy author and folklorist by the name of Alan Garner who released the final book in the Weirdstone trilogy, Boneland, 49 years after the release of the second novel! I doubt we’ll have to wait that long!

My theory might not be original, and many of you might want to disprove this idea immediately, but hear me out. I believe George R.R. Martin is writing both Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring, consecutively. In other words, G.R.R.M. is writing both books as one long narrative. Remember the “split” that was A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons? Maybe, G.R.R.M. is writing nonstop and without considering an “end” of one novel and a “start” of the other novel. This method of writing could prevent a longer wait period between the two novels. Also, George would not be the first author to write a long epic as “one piece.” For example, J.R.R. Tolkien wrote The Lord of the Rings as a single text. The novel was split because of the paper shortage at the end of World War II.

Why would I come up with a theory such as this? It is because of what George said about the end of his series, the “final showdown” will start in Winds of Winter and carry over into A Dream of Spring. Too much will be occurring for it to be saved for the last book. Not that I’m trying to guess the potential ending in Winds of Winter, but I believe it’s safe to say that the climax happened in A Dance with Dragons, and the falling action will be taking place starting from Winds of Winter until the “resolution” at the end of A Dream of Spring. We, as readers, might get so caught up with the action within Winds of Winter that we won’t even realize that we’ve reached the end of the novel until the end of the novel. We can only wait.

So, what does my theory about G.R.R.M.’s writing process have to do with the last two books in the series? I believe that if George is writing both novels consecutively, then there is a chance that the wait period between Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring will be short(er). That being said, George also said that there would be three more novellas in the Dunk and Egg series. Many of us readers know that there are hints and ties between these two series. I’m not saying that we will get all of these stories within consecutive years, but I doubt that we will have to wait five years or more in between the two novels. Maybe we’ll get an announcement after the final season of Game of Thrones premieres or ends? We can only wait.

In Defense of George R.R. Martin’s Fire & Blood Release

Recently, George R.R. Martin announced his upcoming text in his Westeros world, and it’s NOT Winds of Winter. Instead, fans will buy (you know you will) and will read Fire & Blood, a “history of the Targaryens as kings (and queens) in Westeros—from Aegon I, the Conqueror, to the regency (not rule) of Aegon III, the Dragonbane.” This insight into the Targaryens will be an entertaining and an interesting read. And, this is only the first volume in this series!

And yet, several fans are annoyed, again, that this upcoming release is NOT Winds of Winter. I have mentioned my beliefs surrounding the publication and the release of Winds of Winter (read that post), and I don’t mind waiting a bit longer for a good story. I believe we’re missing the silver lining of the announcement. George R.R. Martin said in his blog “…there are dragons too. LOTS of dragons.” His “imaginary history” will give us a look into the dragons and their behaviors and their characteristics, and how the dragon lords tamed them. You know what has NOT been mentioned in any of George R.R. Martin’s other stories from Westeros, other dragons. Both A Song of Ice and Fire and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms take place after the death of the last dragon. Readers will get some insight into how the dragons were tamed by the Targaryens. In addition, according to Tor.com, we could get some questions answered about the dragons. Personally, I’ve been wondering where Daenerys’ dragon eggs came from. I have some theories, but that’s for another time.

I want Winds of Winter as much as you do, but, similar to Harry Potter and Mistborn, I am willing to wait longer for a good story over a rushed one. Also, since this upcoming text takes place within Westeros history, we could learn more of what could happen in Winds of Winter. The first half of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms has given us a look into how the Targaryens ruled the Seven—yes, all 7—Kingdoms, the Blackfyres are mentioned, and Bloodraven demonstrates how good of a Hand he was for the Targaryens. All of these names are mentioned throughout A Song of Ice and Fire series. We still don’t know a lot about dragons, so there should be some useful information about them, hopefully.

Fire & Blood is 640 pages with “more than 75 black and white illustrations” (http://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2018/04/25/fire-blood-on-the-way/). That’s a lot of content surrounding the Targaryens, and their dragons. We could learn more about the Targaryen Valyrian swords: Blackfyre and Dark Sister, or whether or not this is the “book” Jaqen H’ghar is looking for in the Citadel. This book will be a plethora of information for the last two books of A Song of Ice and Fire.

Unfortunately, we won’t get Volume II until after A Dream of Spring is released. And, yes, I know that could be years from now, but George R.R. Martin cannot give us spoilers about Aegon IV, the Unworthy, and the Blackfyres before we find out what happens to the Others! So, while I (continue) to wait for Winds of Winter, I will be reading, analyzing, and theorizing about the Targaryens, and their dragons along with the rest of you!

What do you think about this upcoming “imaginary history”?